US Housing Market Forecast 2026

The 2026 housing market has reached a turning point. As we move into the second half of the year, buyers, sellers, and investors are asking the same question: Will home sales pick up?

At the start of 2026, experts projected a strong rebound in residential real estate. Existing home sales were expected to grow by 14%, while new home sales were forecasted to increase by 5%. However, rising mortgage rates, affordability challenges, and economic uncertainty have forced economists to revise those expectations.

Current forecasts now suggest existing home sales will increase by only 4% this year, while new home sales are expected to remain relatively flat. Mortgage rate projections have also been adjusted upward from 6.0% to approximately 6.5%, creating additional pressure on buyers entering the market.

Key Housing Market Statistics for 2026

• Existing Home Sales Growth Forecast: Revised from 14% to 4%

• New Home Sales Growth Forecast: Revised from 5% to 0%

• Total Home Sales Forecast: Reduced from 5.2 million to 4.9 million

• Existing Home Sales Forecast: Reduced from 4.5 million to 4.2 million

• New Home Sales Forecast: Reduced from 720,000 to 680,000

• Mortgage Rate Forecast: Increased from 6.0% to 6.5%

• Home Price Growth Forecast: Approximately 2–4%

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Why Home Sales Are Slowing

Three major factors are affecting housing demand:

1. Affordability concerns driven by elevated mortgage rates.

2. Economic uncertainty and global geopolitical tensions.

3. Buyers waiting for potential rate cuts before making purchasing decisions.
   

However, experts do not expect a housing crash. Instead, the market is experiencing a normalization period after the rapid appreciation seen during and immediately after the pandemic years.

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What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect

The second half of 2026 will likely remain competitive in inventory-constrained markets, while regions with excess supply may experience slower activity and increased negotiation opportunities.

For buyers, more inventory means greater selection and stronger negotiating power. For sellers, accurate pricing and strong presentation are becoming more important than ever.

The housing market may not be booming, but it remains resilient, stable, and fundamentally healthier than many headlines suggest. US Housing Market Forecast 2026 Source: Keeping Current Matters